Week ahead:Fed & RBNZ’s rate decision in focus

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Two central banks, the Fed and the RBNZ are scheduled to meet this week on Wednesday to take rate related decisions. Markets will also watch out for other market moving economic indicators scheduled to be released this week such as UK’s Q4 GDP data, Australia’s Q4 CPI, Euro zone’s business climate and economic sentiment indicator and of course the US Markit service PMI and consumer confidence index figures.

    The Fed after having raised rates for the first time in a decade in December had said that the subsequent rates hikes will be gradual and data dependent. Posts the December 15-16 meeting several economic indicators have been released. The jobs report on one hand showed strengthening of the labor market on the other hand got the Fed a little worried with the slower growth of wages and smaller participation rate. The CPI figure for December was also upsetting. CPI declined 0.1 per cent in December while core CPI increased 0.1 per in December, a fall from 0.2 per cent increase seen in the previous three months and also its smallest increase since August. The Fed had in the minutes of the December meeting acknowledged the “uncertainty and risks present in the inflation outlook”. Considering this uncertainty, the Fed stressed that ‘the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal’ before arriving on rate decision.

    The RBNZ meets on Wednesday too to decide whether to slash or leave rates unchanged. The Statistics New Zealand on 20th January reported the sharpest drop in the Consumers Price Index (CPI) in 17 years. CPI fell 0.5 per cent in the December quarter, marking the largest quarterly drop since December 2008. Inflation has now been way below the central bank's 1-3 per cent inflation target zone for more than a year now. The RBNZ had in its December’s Monetary Policy Statement forecast 0.4 inflation rate for 2015. The rising deflationary pressure steps up pressure on the central bank to slash rates further to support the economy. The RBNZ had held rates steady at 2.5 per cent in December. However, the central bank had stressed that it will “reduce rates if circumstances warrant”

    ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak today at 18.00 GMT while BoE’s Governor Carney is scheduled to deliver a speech tomorrow at 10.45 GMT. Speeches from policy makers assume utmost importance for the market who can look for clues on future monetary policies in their statements.

    25th January

    German Ifo Business Climate Index-
    The business climate index for January is expected to drop to 108.5 In January from 108.7 recorded in December. The index for current assessment in January is expected to have remained unchanged from December at 112.8. The index for expectation is also likely to have dipped from 104.7 seen previously to 10.4.

    26th January

    US Markit Services PMI-
    Services PMI for January is expected to have remained unchanged in January from the December’s reading of 54.3

    US Consumer Confidence-
    The index measuring consumer confidence has likely risen to 97.0 in January, up from 96.5 seen in December.

    27th January

    Australia CPI- Quarter on quarter, CPI is expected to come in at 0.3 per cent in Q4, down from 0.5 per cent seen in the earlier quarter. Year on year, CPI has liken risen 1.6 per cent in Q4 compared to 1.5 per cent inflation seen earlier.

    UK Nationwide Housing Price- Year on year, the housing price (n.s.a) is expected to have risen 4.7 per cent in January, up from 4.5 per cent increase seen previously. Month on month (s.a), it is expected to have grown 0.5 per cent, less than 0.8 per cent growth registered in December.

    Fed Rate Decision- The Fed will decide whether or not to raise interest rate this month after having increased rates from its record low levels in December thereby ending its zero rate regime. The Monetary Statement will be released soon after. The rate decision meeting will be followed ny a press conference.

    RBNZ Rate Decision- The RBNZ will meet to take a call on whether they need to slash OCR to spur economic growth. The current rate is 2.5 per cent. The Monetary Statement will be published after the meeting.

    Japan Retail Trade- Year on year, retail trade is expected to have declined 0.1 per cent in December after having declined 1.0 per cent in November.

    28th January

    UK GDP- Quarter on quarter, UK’s GDP is expected to have risen 0.5 per cent in Q4 compared to the 0.4 per cent growth seen in the previous quarter. Year on year, GDP is expected to have grown 1.9 per cent, lower than 2.1 per cent growth seen previously.

    Euro Zone Consumer Confidence- Consumer confidence in the bloc is expected to have stayed unchanged from the earlier reading of -6.3 per cent in January.

    Euro Zone Services Sentiment- Services sentiment has likely dropped in January to 12.8 from 13.1 reading seen in December.

    Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator-
    The indicator has likely dropped to 106.6 in January, down from 106.8 recorded in December.

    Euro Zone Business Climate- Business climate in January like came in at 0.39 in January, down from December’s 0.41.

    US Durable Goods Order- Orders for durable goods likely declined 1 per cent in December after having stagnated in November. Excluding transportation, it has likely dropped 0.3 per cent in December, more than 0.1 per cent fall seen earlier.

    29th January

    Euro Zone Consumer Price Index- Year on year, CPI is expected to have risen 0.4 per cent in January, up from 0.2 per cent seen in December.

    US Gross Domestic Product Price Index-
    The index for Q4 is expected to have remained unchanged at 1.3 per cent.

    Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January- The index is expected to have risen to 93.5 in January, up from the previous reading of 93.3.
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