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What we have in store from China today - ANZ

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ explained that the focus since the start of the year has clearly been offshore, with global financial markets getting off to a rough start in large part due to Chinese economic concerns.

    Key Quotes:

    "There is little doubt that the performance of the Chinese economy will be one of the most important (if not the most important!) themes for financial market watchers this year. ANZ Research expects today’s (1:00pm AEDT) Q4 GDP data to come in soft, with growth slowing to 6.8% y/y in Q4, from 6.9% in Q1-Q3, and missing the 7% target for the 2015 year.

    The better-than-expected growth in the first three quarters of 2015 was supported by a strong tertiary industry (services), which grew 8.4% y/y, led by a 17% surge in the financial services sector. It remains to be seen whether the financial services sector will continue to support GDP growth.

    December activity data will also be important to assess the momentum with which the Chinese economy finished 2015. We see a slight improvement in retail sales (+10.3% y/y), given strong growth in motor vehicle sales in the final quarter of 2015. However, manufacturing PMIs remain in contraction, which is likely to see both industrial production (+5.8% y/y) and fixed asset investment (+10.1% y/y) slow slightly in December. Overall, the ongoing economic slowdown, coupled with the recent equity market sell-off, could trigger further monetary policy easing by the PBoC. We’re expecting a further cut to the RRR of 50bps as early as this month."
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