Will global gloom send money into Euros? – SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that in the first two weeks of the year the yen has gained 6% against both AUD and NZD, over 3% against GBP, CNY, SEK and NOK.

    Key Quotes

    “It can’t maintain that pace all year but we’ll want to stay short Yen vs. a range of currencies (NZD, AUD, GBP, KRW to mention a few) for much of 2016.

    EUR/USD has been faithfully tracking the Bind/Treasury yield spread in recent months and the fall in Treasury yields argues that the Euro ‘ought’; to bounce sharply unless Bund yields fall back in line with Treasuries. Given that EUR/USD is basically doing nothing and today’s calendar contains only the account/minutes of the December ECB meeting, there isn’t an obvious catalyst for Euro strength, but I fancy EUR/USD is more likely to break above 1.09 than slip below 1.08 at the back end of this week.

    This does tempt me to buy EUR/GBP on any dip today. The MPC will surely do nothing at its meeting, to rates or bond-buying, but ‘Brexit’ talk continues in the press as the ‘out’ camp makes most of the running.

    With import prices (still falling) and jobless claims the sum total of the US data due today, there isn’t a lot for the market to look at beyond oil prices and equities. But as energy companies suffer from the downturn, the corporate news flow will remain weak and with such steep falls in import prices it’s no wonder that the market has all but abandoned expectations of a March Fed rate hike. Not that the CAD, AUD, or NZD will benefit while oil/commodities remain weak."
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