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Will JPY call option writers be filling xmas stockings on FOMC?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is currently trading on mixed sentiment as we start to count down the little trading time left ahead of the FOMC outcome today.

    The Yen is another one of those currencies that can move like a rocket when it wants to and should there be volatility on an outcome beyond expectations, the scope to move beyond the recent ranges of late is wide in either direction. The price has been laid out in a bullish trend from 2014 Aug business on the basis of the divergence between the Fed and BoJ.

    A confirmation that the Fed will act on their intent could propel the Yen south, but the velocity of such a move and how far the dollar could rally depending on whether, a) a rate hike has been fully priced in and 25bp's seems to have been so. A bigger hike should certainly offer more demand for the dollar and b) Yellen's rhetoric in the presser and the statement's content. A dovish hike will not be a favourable outcome for the dollar bulls. If the Fed hold off, as many observers think that they should and explained here by analysts at TD Securities, untold downside in the dollar should be the outcome and those option writers guarding against such a fallout in USD/JPY will be filling their stockings to the brim this Christmas, that is for sure.

    USD/JPY levels and FOMC volatility

    Technically, the recent rages have been 123.70 down to 118.00 and slightly beyond. The deepest low within the last three months has been in the aftermath of Black Monday in August down at 116.13. R3 is at 122.98 and S3 is at 120.53.

    The 200 DMA is at 121.59 meeting the 100 DMA at 121.58 and the price is currently using that as a pivotal point proving how unbalanced the market is in respect of direction and setting up a volatile outcome throughout this major event.

    Get your tin hats on - for it should be a day to remember in respect of price action setting the tone for 2016. FOMC meeting: it's now or never.
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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