With the exception of retail sales, China’s data dump disappoints

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - After China's weak October export and consumer-price reports, the FAI, retail sales and industrial production data was released today.
    Retail sales in China rose 11.0 per cent on-year in October, a little higher than September's 10.9 per cent jump. The industrial production grew 5.6 per cent year-over-year in October. China's fixed-asset investment (FAI) increased 10.2 per cent in the January-October period compared with the year-earlier period, in line with expectations. It remained below the 10.3 per cent gain recorded in the January-September period. Urban fixed asset investment is believed to be growing at the slowest annual pace in over two decades.

    The industrial production figure at 5.6 was below September's 5.70 per cent level and the expected 5.8 per cent by economists polled by Reuters. The weakness in industrial data was largely offset by strength in consumer spending.

    Retail sales accelerated, increasing by 11% from a year earlier, beating expectations for an increase of 10.9. It was the fastest annual increase recorded since January this year.

    Recent data show China moving towards consumption-led growth model

    The figures are in tune with the trend seen in Chinese economic data in recent times. The increase in retail sales as projected by the data reflects China’s economic transition as previous growth drivers of industrial production are falling away while consumption measures, like retail activity and services, are picking up. The 5th plenum has mentioned a gradual shift to more a consumption-led growth model.

    The government’s non-manufacturing PMI report that focused largely on the nation’s services sector, was expansionary at 53.1; while the government’s manufacturing PMI gauge, recorded at 49.8, held in contractionary territory in October.

    Need for further PBOC easing

    The trade data released on Saturday did nothing to boost optimism. China posted another disappointing month of trade numbers, with both imports and exports well below expectations. Exports fell 6.9 per cent and imports slipped to 18.8 per cent in October. Private and official survey also showed decline in activities in China's factory sector in October. The feeble inflation figures released on the heels of the trade data showed consumer prices rose just 1.3% in the year to October, weaker than the 1.6% increase of September and below expectations for a gain of 1.5%. Producer prices slid 5.9%, declining for the 44th consecutive month.

    With deflationary pressures mounting and other economic indicators bearing proof of a slowdown, the central bank is required to further slash interest rates and cut bank’s RRR.
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