World trade decreasing in 2016 - ING

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 24, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Raoul Leering, Head of International Trade Research ING Bank explained that the world trade shows no clear direction and that according to data released today by The Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis (CPB), the volume of trade in goods worldwide decreased by 0.4 % in January.

    Key Quotes:

    "The December figure was revised up from 0% to 1%.

    One should not read too much in single month readings of indicators as volatile as the CPB- trade figure that is also subject to large revisions. But at face value the January figure is disappointing because the revival of world industrial production in January justified an expectation of positive growth for trade in goods. After two months of decline, world industrial production, led by a recovery in advanced economies, grew 0.6% in January.

    The recovery of industry in the advanced economies has been accompanied by growing import demand from developed economies, but this was overshadowed by a decline of import demand in all regions of the emerging world. In emerging Asia this was related to the decline of industrial production by 0.6%. Other emerging regions showed positive industrial growth but that did not translate into import growth.

    All in all, the start of 2016 hasn’t brought the expected growth for world trade. But the large upward revision of world trade for December makes it too early to conclude that world trade is in the dull drums. Next month’s figure for February and the revision of the current January figure will shed more light on the question whether world trade is stagnating or still growing at a reasonable pace."
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