1. Hello Guest Click here to check FX Binary Point Financial Directory

Yen stages solid comeback in Asia, German CPI, US GDP eyed

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 29, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Mumbai) - As dust settles over the more hawkish-than expected FOMC and a dovish RBNZ stance, attention now turns to the much-awaited BOJ decision due on Friday. While the yen regains lost ground versus the US dollar following the post-FOMC slump, the Aussie extends losses on poor economic data and the NZD maintains the offered tone, accentuated by RBNZ’s indications of further easing likely.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Chinese Premier: Annual 6.53% growth until 2020 needed

    BOJ: Why further QQE tomorrow should not be ruled out?

    Fed Fund futures: Odds of a Fed rate hike in Dec at 43%

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    Calm sets in the Asian session as markets continue to digest the latest monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the RBNZ, which completely diverge. And now with RBNZ also joining the easing central bankers’ league, BOJ looks very close to rolling additional stimulus on Friday. However, the yen was unperturbed by such market views and staged a solid rebound versus the US dollar after reaching as low as 121.28 post-FOMC statement. USD/JPY gave back more than half its previous rally and dived in the red as the Japanese currency regained lost ground on the back better than expected Japan’s industrial production data. Industrial output in Japan rose a solid 1% m/m in September, opposed to market expectations of a 0.5% decline in output.

    While the Antipodes extended to the downside as divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and OZ central banks (RBA & RBNZ) continue to weigh. Moreover, weaker than expected import prices from Australia also dampened the sentiment around the Aussie, sending AUD/USD -0.14% to 0.7100 levels. While the NZD/USD pair remains pressured after the country’s central bank left doors open for further easing and talked down on the NZD level. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said earlier on Thursday, "The exchange rate has been moving higher since September, which could, if sustained, dampen tradables sector activity and medium-term inflation.” The Kiwi now drops to session lows at 0.6655, down 0.70% on the day.

    On the equities space, the Asian stocks snapped early gains and turned negative as Dec Fed rate-hike bets ticked-higher following yesterday’s FOMC, hampering the sentiment around the corporate world (no more cheap money). Australia’s S&P ASX index sinks -1.41% to 5,260. While China A50 index drops -0.10% to 10,015. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng loses -0.32% to 22,883. The Nikkei is declining -0.23% to 18,862.

    Heading into Europe & the US

    An eventful European session awaits the EUR, GBP traders ahead, with the inflation and employment data from German and net lending to individuals data from the UK to be reported in the upcoming session.

    Germany will release its preliminary inflation data for October, with CPI growth seen to show a 0.1% decline on a monthly basis, after a negative 0.2% result reported a month ago, while adding 0.2% annually, compared to 0.0% in September.

    While the German unemployment rate expected to remain at 6.4%, after the same rate recorded in September.

    ECB Vice-president Vítor Constancio is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech on "The Role of Stress Testing in the European Central Bank’s Policy Framework."

    Looking towards the New York session, all eyes will remain on the advance GDP estimate from the US for the third quarter. Markets are predicting that the first estimate for Q3 GDP to show a 1.7% increase y/y, less than half of the expansion seen in the previous quarter.

    Further, weekly jobless claims and pending home sales along with Fed member Lockhart’s speech will be also closely eyed.

    Analysts at BAML explained "Global shocks are having a big negative impact on the industrial sector (which includes resource extraction, utilities, and the production of manufactured goods). Although this sector only accounts for a shrinking, 16% share of GDP, the data have been weak enough to slow the overall economy."

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “The 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators remain in extreme oversold levels, whilst the price has retreated sharply from a bearish 100 DMA. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators maintain a strong bearish momentum, with the RSI indicator heading south around 22. The pair may consolidate some and even retreat partially, but the bearish trend is firm in place, now looking for a test of the base of these last months' range at 1.0840.”
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

Share This Page