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Yuan devaluation again! Its Déjà vu for Asia - Yen on the rise

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Today’s Asian session seems to be a replica of exactly what happened on Wednesday after the Chinese central bank devalued yuan further, although the local stock markets reacted negatively this time. Hence, risk-aversion remains the main theme in Asia this Thursday, with the yen emerging the indisputable winner and the Antipodes heavily dumped on weaker oil and iron-ore prices.

    Key headlines in Asia


    Yuan devaluation by the PBOC


    Lack of PBOC communication on Yuan keeps risk aversion in play

    China's CSI 300 down 7%, closed for the day

    Dominating themes in Asia – centered on JPY, AUD and NZD

    Another Asian session and we have another round of yuan devaluation by the PBOC, which triggered renewed wave of risk-aversion across the financial markets. Today’s PBOC USD/CNY fix came at 6.5646 versus yesterday's 6.5314 and close at 6.555. The China’s stock markets slumped to over 7% within 30 minutes of trading and therefore, trading was halted for the rest of the day. Adding to the omnipresent risk-off environment, oil prices also plummeted to multi-year lows near $ 33 mark and spooked markets completely and rattled investors’ confidence.

    In response to the market unrest and panic, investors gave up riskier / higher yielding assets and ran for cover to protect their capital. Hence, the demand for safe-havens such as the yen, the CHF and gold as also the EUR was on the rise. USD/JPY broke the key support at 118 levels and fell to fresh five-month lows at 117.68. While EUR/USD extended the recovery above 1.08 handle. Gold jumped to new 2-month highs above 1100 – psychological levels.

    On the other hand, the commodity-currencies pack suffered the most, with AUD/USD hammered to 2-month lows ahead of 0.70 handle, while its OZ neighbour, the NZD, was weaker near 0.6640. The Canadian dollar also suffered heavily on the back of falling oil prices and on broad based US dollar weakness.

    On the equities space, Asian indices were in a sea of red, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei plunging -2.20% to 17,792. Australia’s S&P/ASX slumps to 5,020, recording a 2.01% loss in closing hours. The Chinese equities extended the rout and fell more than 7% and hit the circuit breaker, which ends trading for remainder of the day. The Shanghai Composite fell -7.32% while Shenzhen’s CSI300 index dropped -7.21%.

    Heading into Europe and North America


    The European calendar for today holds a series of second-tier data from the Euro land, including the German factory orders and retails, 19-nation bloc’s jobs and retail trade figures and the UK’s Halifax HPI data.

    Germany’s factory orders are expected a 0.1% advance in Nov last year, and 0.9% growth annually. The country reported a 1.8% advance in orders in October m/m, while it saw a 1.4% decline on an annual basis.

    The euro zone will also report its November labor data. The rate of registered unemployed in the region was 10.7% in October, and is expected to remain at the same level. Results from the euro zone's retail businesses in November are also awaited, with 0.3% monthly growth following a 0.1% drop in October and a 2.0% advance projected for the year after a 2.5% yearly gain reported a month ago.

    Looking towards the North American session, the Bank of Canada (BOC) President Poloz speech is expected to take the center stage in wake of the recent decline in oil prices. While from the US, the weekly jobless claims and the EIA natural gas storage report will be published.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “The EUR/USD surged to its daily high, but remained capped by the 1.0800 figure, unable to confirm a recovery above the 50% retracement of the December rally at 1.0780. Technically however, a short term bullish tone prevails according to the 1 hour chart, as the technical indicators head higher above their mid-lines, whilst the price is bouncing from a horizontal 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart, however, the price is still below a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are barely bouncing from oversold levels, suggesting the upside will remain limited as long as the price remains below 1.0810. Support levels: 1.0750 1.0710 1.0660 Resistance levels: 1.0810 1.0845 1.0890.”
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