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ZAR and the investment outlook - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD are concerned in respect of the rand what might follow in respect of the investment outlook.

    Key Quotes:

    "The rand has been one of the worst performers in EM, and that is likely to continue.

    Our EM FX model has South Africa near the bottom of our league table with VERY WEAK FUNDAMENTALS.

    In 2015, ZAR was the third worst performer in EM, down -26% vs. USD and behind only BRL (-33%) and ARS (-35%). This continues in 2016, with ZAR the worst EM currency at -8% YTD.

    USD/ZAR made a new record high today near 18 with a “flash crash” during the Asian session. The pair has since fallen back, but we expect further dollar gains ahead.

    South African equities have outperformed within EM, but this appears unsustainable. MSCI South Africa was down only -1.9% in 2015 vs. -16.6% for MSCI EM. Equities are already starting to perform a bit worse in 2016, as MSCI South Africa is down -8.3% YTD vs. -9.5% YTD for MSCI EM. Our EM Equity model has South Africa right at the bottom of our league table as VERY UNDERWEIGHT.

    South African bonds have done poorly. The yield on 10-year local currency government bonds is up +204 bp over the past year. This is amongst the worst performers, which include Brazil (+396 bp), Turkey (+379 bp), Peru (+203 bp), and Colombia (+192 bp). With inflation likely to rise and the SARB tightening cycle likely to continue, we think South African bonds are likely to continue underperforming.
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