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ZAR & TRY: Rand suffers more than lira - MUFG

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, notes that with the rising US yield the rand has weakened sharply to record lows while the lira has remained well below the record low versus the dollar.

    Key Quotes

    “EM FX has been relatively calm with most currencies remaining well below weak points recorded in the aftermath of the CNY devaluation in August. We have highlighted to our customers continuously that from an external funding risk perspective the South African rand and the Turkish lira were the most vulnerable in EM FX space to rising yields in the US.”

    “This is of course down to the election result which has reduced political uncertainty. That might be so, but many uncertainties related to the Erdogan/AKP administration still exist and the support for the lira could give way easily. With a current account deficit in the region of 5% of GDP, and core annual inflation moving sharply higher, the support for the lira looks fragile to us.”
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